Search results for "Futures studies"
showing 10 items of 15 documents
Exploring the unknowns : State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research
2022
The forest-based sector is facing one the greatest transitions in its history in the face of global megatrends. Globalization, sustainability challenges and the ICT sector have put the world in a new light. Whereas some of the recent developments have resulted in challenges for the traditional forest industry, many positive expectations and opportunities are also seen to arise in the form of the transition to a sustainable bio-economy. However, to be able to fully seize the opportunity, the industry has to navigate through contingency where preparedness can have a major impact. Foresight as a strategic approach can help to prepare and sensitize decision-makers to be prepared for the future.…
Using foresight exercise to design adaptation policy to climate change: The case of the French wine industry
2018
Foresight studies are regularly conducted at sectoral or geographical scales, in order to help policy makers and economic actors to define their strategy of adaptation to climate change (CC). Some studies are rather “quick exercises”, in which a panel of experts is consulted to define the expected impacts of CC and to identify adaptation leviers for future policy. In other cases, a true foresight methodology is developed, leading to the building of scenarios based on : i) a systemic and participatory approach, ii) the definition of key variables, iii) the choice of assumptions and the coherent relations between these assumptions, the narrative description of scenarios. This participatory di…
Adaptation to climate change of the French wine industry: a systemic approach – Main outcomes of the project LACCAVE
2018
Présenté au 12. Congreso Internacional Terroir; Taking into account the major economical role and specificities of the French wine industry, adaptation to climate change is a very challenging issue. In 2011, 23 research teams launched a systemic and multidisciplinary program to analyze the impacts from the vine to the region, to define adaptation strategies combining technical, spatial and organizational options and to evaluate the perception by the actors and consumers of climate change issues. Thermal variability was studied at local scale to develop high resolution atmospheric models which better simulate future climate trends. Impacts on growth/developmental conditions and vine response…
Uncovering the knowledge flows and intellectual structures of research in Technological Forecasting and Social Change: A journey through history
2020
Abstract Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) celebrates its fiftieth anniversary this year. The anniversary represents an appropriate time for an introspective analysis of the journal's history and impact. This study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC in terms of how often TF&SC is cited by other journals (citation outflow), how often other journals are cited by TF&SC (citation inflow), citations by Web of Science and SCImago disciplinary categories, most-cited articles in TF&SC, co-citation of journals, and co-occurrence of author keywords. Analysis is conducted by using the Web of Science (WOS) database and Visualization of Similarities (VOS) viewer software. The in…
Radical innovations: Between established knowledge and future research opportunities
2021
Abstract The fast growing body of radical innovation research is fragmented and difficult to overlook. We provide an overview of the most cited journals, authors, and publications and conduct a bibliographic coupling to structure the literature landscape. We identified the following research clusters: management of radical innovations, organizational learning and knowledge, financial aspects of radical innovation, radical innovation adoption and diffusion, radical industry innovations as challenges for incumbents, and radical innovation in specific industries. Based on an in-depth content analysis of these clusters, we identify the following future research opportunities: A systematic compi…
Exploring the future: Runtime scenario selection for complex and time-bound decisions
2015
Abstract Scenarios are designed to support decision-makers in gaining a better understanding of the consequences of decisions. Despite their popularity in IT for Foresight, a major obstacle is the complexity of strategic decisions and the resulting multitude of scenarios. Therefore choices need to be made, which scenarios to fully work out, by which experts and in which level of detail. This paper presents an approach to support making these trade-offs between accuracy and resources spent by prioritising scenarios based on their significance for the decision even on the basis of incomplete information. This approach combines theoretical findings in decision theory with results that were eli…
Exploring the Future of Universities Through Experimental Foresight
2020
Throughout 2018/2019, The Futures Lab, Inc. (TFL) was commissioned to undertake a comprehensive foresight study on the potential futures for universities in Norway. For the most part, the project followed the full, TFL comprehensive six-stage foresight process and a number of customized approaches that leveraged the specificities of the Norwegian Education System. The foresight project covered two future time horizons, namely 2025 to 2030 and 2031 to 2040. Rather than focus here on the Future of the University project itself, this paper considers five experimental foresight methods that produced an extra edge to the creative inputs to this project and delivered some unexpected and critical …
Transitions to sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria analysis to develop viable sustainability strategie…
2018
Islands face similar challenges for sustainability as continental areas, but their geographic situation conditions their options for development. However, thanks to their clear geographic boundarie...
Creating futures images for sustainable cruise ships : insights on collaborative foresight for sustainability enhancement
2021
The aim of the study was to explore futures images of collaborative sustainability enhancement within a cruise ship building network. Addressing collaborative sustainability at the organizational level rather than at the macro (regional or planetary) level, the paper explores socially constructed and shared futures images, which are less widely studied than individual-level images of the future. We advance an analytical model for constructing and evaluating collectively held futures images based on the structure and content of those images. From our data, we identified four futures images: Money rules; The customer is always right; Local economy focus; and The most sustainable ships in the …
Foresight as a Tool for Increasing Creativity in the Age of Technology-Enhanced Learning
2018
The inclusion of established methodologies from the science of foresight within an ICT course structure can lead to increased levels of student creativity when these processes are learned through a multimedia enhanced learning environment.